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Liar, Liar…! ‘Dragon’ on Fire?

April 19th, 2010

 

 It was another squeaker at the domestic box office this weekend. And another extraordinary round of B.O. estimating, Liar’s Poker style…

According to “Daily Variety,” new release “Kick-Ass” won the Friday ‘frame’ of the weekend, with $7.5 million, while two other films, “Date Night” and weekend opener “Death at a Funeral” were in a virtual Friday tie, with $5.5 million each. It would suggest a tough battle between niche markets to take the weekend. BUT – there’s always the inevitable Hollywood third-act twist (… or IS THERE?)!

Gotta hand it to those distribution dudes… they really know how to wring the suspense out of a weekend. So, as the dragon-smoke clears, and those estimates are faxed in (or emailed in – who knows? With the occasional ‘accuracy’ of some of these numbers, maybe they’re sent by Ouija board…), a new box office champ is crowned – sort of. Last week’s ‘surprise’ repeat #1, “Clash of the Titans,” slipped to the number 5 slot, supplanted by ANOTHER 3-D film, “How to Train Your Dragon,” in its 3rd week of release. As a reminder, ‘Dragon’ opened in the  #1 slot, but quickly fell to #3 in its second week. Its buoyed finish may have something to do with the higher price of 3-D movie tickets - or a particularly bold ‘bluff’ in the Liar’s Poker game of weekend film gross estimating. 

Kick-Ass still

And here’s the rub… ‘Dragon’ beat out “Kick-Ass” to take the #1 weekend slot – but only by $200k. In ESTIMATED dollars. So, I think you know where this is headed… If, as happened last weekend, one studio (or more) got ‘generous’ with their estimated weekend take, the order of #1 and #2 would certainly change… And “Kick-Ass” would open at #1, which is undoubtedly what Lionsgate, its studio, wants. PLUS – and this is one of those ‘only in Hollywood’ scenarios, Lionsgate is mired in a nasty takeover bid by Carl ‘Destroyer of Worlds’ Icahn, and having a number one picture at the box office would be a big boost to the beleaguered mini-major.

As for the rest of the liars at this poker game, “Date Night” and “Death at a Funeral” finished at #3 and #4, with $17.3 and $17 million respectively, but with only $300k between them, it’s anyone’s guess who the ‘real’ #3 and #4 are. Unless they substantially underreported, “Clash of the Titans” should definately have a lock on fifth place, with $15.8 million.

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